TRB No: 991269

An Integrated Land-Use and Transportation Model System:
The Case of Athens Metro Development Study (MDS)

Ilias Kokkinos*

Amalia Polydoropoulou**

Deloukas*

A. Anastasaki*

*Attiko Metro, S.A.
**University of the Aegean
Department of Shipping, Trade and Transport

Paper Prepared for Presentation at the Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C. January 1999



The paper presented a modeling framework that integrates transportation and spatial interaction models. This modeling framework adequately represents changes in terms of socioeconomic and job characteristics, the availability of transport modes, and traffic conditions. The sub-models were developed within the context of the Metro Development Study (MDS) conducted by the Planning Department of ATTIKO METRO S.A.

The modeling framework was calibrated for the Athens Metropolitan Area. The framework included the following steps (predictions covering a 20- year span):
  1. land use patterns;
  2. evolution of auto ownership;
  3. trip generation predictions;
  4. trip distribution predictions;
  5. informed guesses about the modal split; and
  6. traffic assignment.
Using generalized costs from the traffic assignment model, a spatial interaction model (GARIN-LOWRY) was calibrated. This model was applied to assist in the prediction of household socioeconomic characteristics as well as in retail, and non-retail job densities on a zonal level. The results of the spatial interaction model were used for the application of a transportation model (EMME/2).

It is interesting to note that, the results of an “unconstrained” run of the spatial interaction model, if compared to the results of a similar model run (when the total demand and supply for transportation were defined via an empirical approach) differed considerably. Since the empirical method (DELPHI) took into account the impacts of various non-quantifiable external factors, (environmental and image effects on regional development), it was decided that the land-use model needed explicitly to incorporate such vital components.

Application results showed that both household and retail densities significantly increase in the suburbs of the Metropolitan Area. At the same time they decrease in the center of Athens. Changes in the land-use patterns, due to the introduction of new modes, such as metro and light rail, the construction of new highways, such as Attiki Odos, the new airport in Spata (Eleftherios Venizelos), were discussed in more detail.

Key Words: Land-Use, Regional Development, Transportation Model, Garin-Lowry Model